The AI IPO Cliff

A live calendar of when shares from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI become legally tradable. Each IPO unlocks supply in two confirmed waves: the small 5% public float sold at listing, then the much larger 95% locked for 180 days that floods the market at lockup expiry. For OpenAI and Anthropic, additional secondary offerings are highly likely at 12-15 months post-IPO given their multi-billion-dollar quarterly compute burn — modeled here as speculative events. For investors with AI-weighted exposure (individual names, sector ETFs, or just the Mag 7), this is where actual price discovery happens — not on listing day.

$3.5T+
Combined valuation across 2026 SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPO's
$469B
Total US IPO market in 2025 — 2026 IPO's exceed 2025 by 7x
3-8%
Public float per deal: scarcity pricing, not real price discovery
$3.3T+
Locked insider equity becoming sellable at lockup expiries (Dec 2026 – May 2027)

The Lockup Supply Calendar

Insider equity becoming sellable by month. Toggle deals and adjust assumed float to model the supply flood.

5%

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