The AI IPO Cliff
A live calendar of when shares from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI become legally tradable. Each IPO unlocks supply in two confirmed waves: the small 5% public float sold at listing, then the much larger 95% locked for 180 days that floods the market at lockup expiry. For OpenAI and Anthropic, additional secondary offerings are highly likely at 12-15 months post-IPO given their multi-billion-dollar quarterly compute burn — modeled here as speculative events. For investors with AI-weighted exposure (individual names, sector ETFs, or just the Mag 7), this is where actual price discovery happens — not on listing day.
$3.5T+
Combined valuation across 2026 SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPO's
$469B
Total US IPO market in 2025 — 2026 IPO's exceed 2025 by 7x
3-8%
Public float per deal: scarcity pricing, not real price discovery
$3.3T+
Locked insider equity becoming sellable at lockup expiries (Dec 2026 – May 2027)
The Lockup Supply Calendar
Insider equity becoming sellable by month. Toggle deals and adjust assumed float to model the supply flood.
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Three historical scenario paths
Private + public AI valuation map
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Three Scenarios From Now Through Q4 2027
Bracketed by historical patterns: Facebook (best), Snowflake (base), Rivian (worst). Adjust probability weights — the expected-value path redraws.
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The Narrative-in-the-Price Wedge
Valuation vs revenue. The diagonal lines mark 5x, 20x, and 50x revenue multiples. The gap between a company's dot and the trendline is the narrative premium baked into the price.
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