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Every tariff headline sends the whole market into a panic. Every sector sells off together. And for 23 of 28 industries we track, it's almost completely irrelevant.
AI adoption velocity is a tsunami. Tariff policy is a garden hose. For most of the economy, the structural technology transformation is so powerful that who's in the White House barely moves the needle.
Consumer Durables: -0.8 at one year.
You can't reshore a sneaker factory.
But for 5 industries, Trump IS the primary driver. Policy overwhelms AI. And the impact is quantifiable.
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The 5 Trump-dominated industries:
• Consumer Durables (Overwhelm: 0.2) — tariffs existential, -0.8 at 1yr
• Consumer Discretionary (0.2) — tariffs = regressive tax, -0.5 at 1yr
• Tech Hardware (0.2) — can't innovate around a 50% border tax, -0.6 at 1yr
• Consumer Services (0.3) — immigration = their labor AND customers, -0.4 at 1yr
• Banks (0.4) — CFPB gutted, Basel III killed. +0.5 at 1yr. The one winner.
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We call it the Overwhelm Factor. It tells you, industry by industry, whether to build your thesis on AI dynamics or policy analysis. The full report has all 28 scores.
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Full report — all 28 Overwhelm Factors, the 5 Trump-dominated industries in detail, and the international overlay that makes it worse:
Read The Trump Overlay
Free Portfolio X-Ray — see which of your holdings sit in Trump-dominated vs AI-dominated industries:
Run Your Free Scan
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— Scott Covert,
AI Stock Market Impacts
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