Fusion Stocks Matrix

Fusion Stocks Matrix — v2 Real-Data Synthesis

Update 2026-05-27 v2: Universe and scoring are now both real-data-validated via prompts 1-6 synthesis (Gemini Deep Research Prompt 1 + Claude in-chat WebSearch + WebFetch primary research for prompts 2-6). One pure-play public arrival added: SVAC (Spring Valley Acq III, becomes GFUZ on NASDAQ mid-2026 via General Fusion SPAC) — trades TODAY pre-merger. The TMTG-TAE $6B merger is omitted from this matrix by editorial decision (political/ESG flow constraints make it noise relative to its fusion-exposure signal).

Key scoring changes vs v1: MTRN upgraded 64→72 (direct signed beryllium-fluoride supply contract with Commonwealth Fusion Systems, shipments started 2025). CEG upgraded 62→64 (Helion explicitly named CEG as power marketer for Orion plant — real signed business, not pure speculation). BWXT downgraded 60→58 (recent contracts are entirely fission/defense, no specific fusion contract surfaced). ATI/VST/AMAT/GEV all marked-down for untrackable or peripheral fusion signal at their mcap scale.

Structural read: pre-mid-2026 the public universe leans heavily on enablers and utilities with fusion as small-revenue-share exposure (MTRN is the exception). Post mid-2026 the universe gains its first pure-play via the General Fusion SPAC close (Magnetized Target Fusion architecture). Asymmetric private upside still lives in CFS ($5-6B post Series B2), Helion ($5.4B), TAE ($6B implied), Pacific Fusion (undisclosed valuation, $900M Series A General Catalyst lead).

Not financial advice. Not an offer to buy or sell securities. Hover any ticker for synthesis rationale + concept exposure.

Input Factors

Stock Universe

13 tracked public tickers — suppliers, defense, utilities, ETFs. Most fusion pure-plays are PRIVATE.

Qtr

Capital & DOE/ARPA-E Funding

DOE Milestone Program, ARPA-E BETHE, NIF, ITER, private VC rounds, utility offtake deals.

Qtr

Ignition & Reactor Milestone Risk

NIF shot cadence, CFS SPARC plasma, ITER first plasma, Helion 2028 commercial target.

Monthly

Bull / Bear Per Stock

Per-ticker theses. Honestly small for most names — fusion is optionality kicker on core business.

6mo

Cross-Stock Value Chain

Materials ↔ Magnets ↔ Reactor ↔ BoP ↔ Grid ↔ Offtake propagation pairs.

Qtr

Concept Risk

Tokamak / Stellarator / Inertial Confinement / FRC / Z-Pinch / Magnetic Mirror exposure.

Qtr

Historical Precedent

Cold Fusion 1989, ITER overruns, NIF pre-ignition decade, "30 years away" baggage.

6mo

Expert Consensus & Bias

Bimodal: founders 5-10 yrs, academics 20+ yrs, Jassby-tier skeptics arguing never. COI flags applied.

6mo

Calculation Engine

Phase 1

Per-stock base scoring 8 stocks × 6 components

Phase 2

Cross-stock + concept weights Value chain + private-comp ceilings

Phase 3

Score ranking & tier Concept risk + potential tier

Ignition Cadence

Offtake Deals

Stock	Potential	Score	1 mo	6 mo	12 mo	24 mo	60 mo

Fusion Stocks Matrix — v2 Real-Data Synthesis