FDA formalizing AI in drug development (2025 draft guidance, CDER AI Council, 500+ AI-component submissions). Merck-Mayo Clinic partnership: AI discovery on real-world clinical datasets, not just synthetic. AI cutting 40% time and 30% cost from target-to-preclinical stage.
Moats STRENGTHENING: clinical trial data + manufacturing/distribution/FDA relationships unchanged. "Buy vs build" absorbs biotech innovation. Resistance dropped significantly (0.95 to 0.87) because regulatory clarity removed the #1 barrier.
A score of 1.00 = no change.
>1.00 means AI (net) boosts this industry's relative value.
<1.00 means AI (net) erodes it.
These are relative scores — how this industry's share of the economy shifts in relation to all 28 industries we track.
| Timeframe | Score | Range | In Plain English |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | 1.12 | 1.10 – 1.14 | Slight tailwind (+12%) |
| 2 Years | 1.38 | 1.34 – 1.43 | AI tailwind (+38%) |
| 3 Years | 1.82 | 1.72 – 1.92 | AI tailwind (+82%) |
| 5-year and 10-year projections are available in the Full AI Market Cascade Dashboard | |||
Each industry is scored across 8 independent research dimensions, then multiplied together:
Then cascaded through 170 cross-industry relationships. Each dimension is weighted differently at each time horizon.
9 research-grade knowledge bases built from earnings calls, patent filings, regulatory documents, and industry reports. 170 mapped cross-industry relationships. Continuously maintained and recalibrated — 6 calibration rounds to date.
Refreshed with every major development. Real deployment numbers, quarterly earnings data, regulatory shifts (EU AI Act, export controls), and macro conditions like the energy bottleneck. Not a static model — a living one.
This report uses: Base case AI development pace and Current trajectory energy trajectory. Members can adjust both and see how scores change in real time.
When AI changes these industries, it ripples into PHARMA - Big Pharma.
| Industry | Effect | Strength | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Materials
AI growth in Materials creates demand or opportunities that benefit PHARMA - Big Pharma
|
Positive | 85% | Long-term |
|
PHARMA - Biotech & AI Drug Discovery
AI changes in PHARMA - Biotech & AI Drug Discovery have complex, mixed effects on PHARMA - Big Pharma
|
Mixed | 80% | Medium-term |
|
SEMICONDUCTORS - Chip Design & Fabless
AI growth in SEMICONDUCTORS - Chip Design & Fabless creates demand or opportunities that benefit PHARMA - Big Pharma
|
Positive | 65% | Medium-term |
|
SOFTWARE - Cloud & AI Platforms
AI growth in SOFTWARE - Cloud & AI Platforms creates demand or opportunities that benefit PHARMA - Big Pharma
|
Positive | 50% | Medium-term |
|
SEMICONDUCTORS - Foundry & Equipment
AI growth in SEMICONDUCTORS - Foundry & Equipment creates demand or opportunities that benefit PHARMA - Big Pharma
|
Positive | 40% | Medium-term |
When AI changes PHARMA - Big Pharma, 7 other industries feel it:
See how all 28 industries compare in our Full AI Market Cascade Dashboard