Capital goods covers makers of industrial machinery, construction, mining and farm equipment, aerospace and defense systems, electrical and power generation equipment, and building products. Many of these companies build the turbines, engines and electrical gear that new data centers need.
Representative public companies: GE Vernova (GEV), Caterpillar (CAT), Deere & Company (DE), Eaton (ETN), Vertiv (VRT), Honeywell (HON), RTX (RTX). Named for context only, not as recommendations.
Research current as of September 12, 2026 · Adoption stage: Scaling deployments
Capital goods sits on both sides of AI in 2026. As a supplier, it is filling data center and power orders. GE Vernova reported Q2 2026 orders of $24.2 billion, up 88% organically, and gas turbine backlog plus slot reservations of 116 GW. Caterpillar's Power Generation sales rose 29% to $3.098 billion in the same quarter, driven mainly by data center applications. As a user and seller of AI, autonomy is in production in mining, where Caterpillar's autonomous fleet has moved more than 11 billion tonnes of material, and it is spreading to construction and farming. In January 2026 Caterpillar introduced autonomous construction machines. In July it bought Skycatch for AI-powered mine site data, and in September it partnered with FieldAI on physical AI. U.S. Sugar began commercial driverless operation of retrofitted John Deere tractors in May 2026.
| Company | What was deployed | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | Autonomous haulage in mining through Cat MineStar, the base for autonomous excavators, dozers, loaders, compactors and haul trucks introduced for construction in January 2026, to be spotlighted at CONEXPO-CON/AGG 2026. More than 11 billion tonnes of material moved and more than 380 million kilometers traveled by the autonomous mining fleet. |
2026-01-09[1] |
| GE Vernova (GEV) | Gas turbines, grid and electrification equipment supplied to data center and utility customers, including most of the generation for Chevron's planned 2.67 GW Kilby plant serving Microsoft. Q2 2026 orders of $24.2 billion, up 88% organically; gas equipment backlog and slot reservations rose from 100 GW to 116 GW. |
2026-07-22[2] |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | Acquired Skycatch, whose drone-based 3D spatial data and AI tools create near-real-time digital twins of mine sites, to feed Caterpillar's RPM and MineStar software for staffed and autonomous fleets. | 2026-07-07[3] |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | Collaboration with FieldAI, using NVIDIA technology, on autonomous inspections, jobsite digital twins and AI-driven risk identification for job sites and factories. | 2026-09-02[4] |
| U.S. Sugar (private), using Deere & Company (DE) tractors | Commercial fleet of four John Deere 8R tractors and one 9R tractor retrofitted with Autonomous Solutions, Inc. automation kits, supervised remotely with one operator overseeing several machines, after an 18-month pilot. | 2026-05-28[5] |
Projections grounded in what is happening now, not certainties. Each one names the signal that would confirm it.
Capital goods incumbents layering AI on installed base — and it's working dramatically. Caterpillar Level 4 autonomy: 11B tonnes moved, 380M km, now expanding from mining into construction across excavators/loaders/dozers/compactors. Boeing AI robotics cut assembly time 50%; Fairmarkit AI procurement cut sourcing cycles 85%. Honeywell digital twins enabling 10% warehouse capacity gains without capex.
The physical moat is real AND the AI enhancement is enormous.
A score of 1.00 = no change.
>1.00 means AI (net) boosts this industry's relative value.
<1.00 means AI (net) erodes it.
These are relative scores — how this industry's share of the economy shifts in relation to all 31 industries we track.
| Timeframe | Score | Range | In Plain English |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | 1.10 | 1.08 – 1.12 | Slight tailwind (+10%) |
| 2 Years | 1.23 | 1.19 – 1.28 | AI tailwind (+23%) |
| 3 Years | 1.61 | 1.50 – 1.71 | AI tailwind (+61%) |
| 5 Years | 2.35 | 2.14 – 2.56 | AI tailwind (+135%) |
| 10 Years | 2.93 | 2.66 – 3.20 | AI tailwind (+193%) |
The same engine run under three sets of assumptions. The spread between the rows shows the uncertainty. It is not a forecast of which one happens.
| Scenario | 1 yr | 2 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 10 yr | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boom Faster AI progress, energy breakthroughs | 1.10 | 1.27 | 1.65 | 2.56 | 3.29 | #10 |
| Base Base case AI progress, current trajectory energy | 1.10 | 1.23 | 1.61 | 2.35 | 2.93 | #3 |
| Doom Slower AI progress, constrained energy, market correction | 1.05 | 1.18 | 1.55 | 2.15 | 2.45 | #4 |
Each component is scored from research, weighted differently at each time horizon, and added together:
Then cascaded through 205 cross-industry relationships.
Built from earnings calls, patent filings, regulatory documents, deployment disclosures and peer-reviewed research. 205 mapped cross-industry relationships. Recalibrated continuously since February 2026, with every parameter change logged.
Refreshed with every major development. Real deployment numbers, quarterly earnings data, regulatory shifts (EU AI Act, export controls), and macro conditions like the energy bottleneck. Not a static model — a living one.
This report uses: Base case AI development pace and Current trajectory energy trajectory. Members can adjust both and see how scores change in real time.
When AI changes these industries, it ripples into Capital Goods.
| Industry | Effect | Strength | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Materials
AI growth in Materials creates demand or opportunities that benefit Capital Goods
|
Positive | 50% | Medium-term |
|
SOFTWARE - Cloud & AI Platforms
AI growth in SOFTWARE - Cloud & AI Platforms creates demand or opportunities that benefit Capital Goods
|
Positive | 45% | Medium-term |
When AI changes Capital Goods, 5 other industries feel it:
See how all 31 industries compare in our Full AI Market Cascade Dashboard