Capital goods incumbents layering AI on installed base — and it's working dramatically. Caterpillar Level 4 autonomy: 11B tonnes moved, 380M km, now expanding from mining into construction across excavators/loaders/dozers/compactors. Boeing AI robotics cut assembly time 50%; Fairmarkit AI procurement cut sourcing cycles 85%. Honeywell digital twins enabling 10% warehouse capacity gains without capex.
The physical moat is real AND the AI enhancement is enormous.
A score of 1.00 = no change.
>1.00 means AI (net) boosts this industry's relative value.
<1.00 means AI (net) erodes it.
These are relative scores — how this industry's share of the economy shifts in relation to all 28 industries we track.
| Timeframe | Score | Range | In Plain English |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | 1.06 | 1.04 – 1.08 | Slight tailwind (+6%) |
| 2 Years | 1.26 | 1.21 – 1.31 | AI tailwind (+26%) |
| 3 Years | 1.65 | 1.53 – 1.76 | AI tailwind (+65%) |
| 5-year and 10-year projections are available in the Full AI Market Cascade Dashboard | |||
Each industry is scored across 8 independent research dimensions, then multiplied together:
Then cascaded through 170 cross-industry relationships. Each dimension is weighted differently at each time horizon.
9 research-grade knowledge bases built from earnings calls, patent filings, regulatory documents, and industry reports. 170 mapped cross-industry relationships. Continuously maintained and recalibrated — 6 calibration rounds to date.
Refreshed with every major development. Real deployment numbers, quarterly earnings data, regulatory shifts (EU AI Act, export controls), and macro conditions like the energy bottleneck. Not a static model — a living one.
This report uses: Base case AI development pace and Current trajectory energy trajectory. Members can adjust both and see how scores change in real time.
When AI changes these industries, it ripples into Capital Goods.
| Industry | Effect | Strength | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Materials
AI growth in Materials creates demand or opportunities that benefit Capital Goods
|
Positive | 50% | Medium-term |
|
SOFTWARE - Cloud & AI Platforms
AI growth in SOFTWARE - Cloud & AI Platforms creates demand or opportunities that benefit Capital Goods
|
Positive | 45% | Medium-term |
When AI changes Capital Goods, 4 other industries feel it:
See how all 28 industries compare in our Full AI Market Cascade Dashboard