Input Factors
Stock Universe
14 tracked tickers — pure-plays, incumbents, enablers, ETF. Exposure level + sub-category.
Qtr
Capital & CHIPS Funding
Institutional positioning, CHIPS Act $2B awardees, private-comp pricing ceiling.
Monthly
Milestone & Test Risk
Upcoming earnings, hardware roadmaps, error-correction demos, IPO catalysts.
Monthly
Bull / Bear Per Stock
Per-ticker thesis pairs with falsifiable change-of-mind triggers.
Qtr
Cross-Stock Value Chain
Cryo ↔ Hardware ↔ Software ↔ Cloud ↔ Apps propagation pairs.
Qtr
Modality Risk
Superconducting / trapped-ion / photonic / neutral-atom / annealing exposure.
Qtr
Historical Precedent
Genomics 1999, 3D printing 2013, AV 2018, Nanotech 2003 — pure-play drawdown analogs.
6mo
Expert Consensus & Bias
Bimodal: high-credibility academics 10+ yrs, industry leaders 4-7 yrs. COI flags applied.
6mo
Calculation Engine
Phase 1
Per-stock base scoring
14 stocks × 6 components
Phase 2
Cross-stock propagation
14 effect pairs + modality weights
Phase 3
Score ranking & tier
Conviction score + potential tier
| Stock | Potential | Score | 1 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo | 24 mo | 60 mo |
|---|