Strait of Hormuz: Industry Impact Heatmap

15 industries scored across 4 Hormuz scenarios. Hover over any cell for the detailed analysis.

STATUS: DE FACTO CLOSURE Strait of Hormuz traffic down 95%+ since February 28, 2026.

US-Israel strikes on Iran (Feb 28) followed by Iranian retaliation. US naval blockade imposed April 13. Commercial transit effectively ceased. Hundreds of vessels loitering outside the Persian Gulf. War-risk insurance premiums at extreme levels.

Current readings: Brent $106+/bbl (peaked $128 early April). Diesel $5.40/gal (+50% YoY). Jet fuel ~$4/gal (doubled). Urea $702/MT (+81% YTD). Ammonia >$900/MT. SPR drawing 4.4M bbl/day to 40-year low.

What this heatmap shows: How each industry is affected under four possible outcomes, from quick resolution to wider conflict. This is NOT a prediction of which scenario will happen. It's a map of which industries are most exposed under each one.
Full Hormuz food-energy crisis analysis | Tariff heatmap

Industry Impact Under 4 Hormuz Scenarios

Hover over any cell for detailed effects. Green = positive for that industry, yellow = mixed, orange-to-red = increasingly negative.

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Resolved by Q3 2026

Ceasefire + shipping resumes by August. 5-month total disruption. Infrastructure repair needed. Prices begin normalizing but fertilizer elevated into 2027.

Closed Through Harvest

Strait stays closed through Northern Hemisphere harvest (Oct 2026). Spring planting fully disrupted. 10-20% cereal yield reduction. Food inflation severe Q4 2026.

12-Month Closure

No resolution through Feb 2027. SPR depleted. Grain reserves collapsing. Multi-year famine risk in developing nations. Recession in developed world.

Wider Conflict

Escalation beyond Hormuz: attacks on Saudi/UAE oil infrastructure, Taiwan tensions spike, multiple chokepoints disrupted. Global crisis.

Key Numbers (April 23, 2026): Hormuz carries 21M bpd oil (21% of global) + 20% of global LNG + 50% of seaborne urea + 30% of seaborne ammonia. Full closure = 12-14M bpd unmitigated shortfall (pipeline bypass maxes at 6-8.5M bpd). Zero LNG pipeline alternatives. 48-50% of global population is fed by the Haber-Bosch process, which runs on natural gas. FAO Food Price Index at 128.5, rising. Political instability threshold: FAO 210 (triggered 2008 food riots, 2011 Arab Spring).

This Is One Variable. Our Engine Tracks 167.

Hormuz is devastating, but it's temporary. AI is restructuring every one of these industries permanently. Our engine maps AI disruption × energy × geopolitics × 167 cross-industry cascade effects across 28 industries and 5 time horizons.

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Sources & Methodology

EIA (oil transit, SPR data), IEA (jet fuel analysis), FAO (Food Price Index), USDA (fertilizer costs, planting data), DTN (fertilizer market prices), market data (Brent, WTI, Henry Hub, TTF), NECSI (political instability threshold), Erisman et al. Nature Geoscience (Haber-Bosch dependency), Pimentel/Cornell (food-energy ratios), scovert.com crisis-monitor brain (127 entries). Scores: green = positive, yellow = mixed, orange-to-red = increasingly negative impact.