US Tariff Impact Heatmap Across 29 Stock Market Industries

By Scott Covert · independent analyst & builder of the AI Stock Market Impacts engine · Ontario, Canada

Scored across 4 scenarios, updated July 3, 2026. Hover over any cell for the detailed analysis behind each score.

Section 122 expires by law in 13 days — July 24, 2026. Section 301 is built to take its place before that clock runs out.

Timeline

JULY 1, 2026 US Declines To Renew USMCA. Canada Hasn't Even Started Talking.
With the mandatory joint-review deadline arriving, the administration announced it won't renew the pact as-is. Mexico and the US are already in bilateral talks, scheduled to keep running past the deadline. Canada and the US haven't started theirs. The sticking point: a new US demand that 50% of a vehicle be built domestically to qualify for USMCA treatment — only about 1 in 5 Mexican- or Canadian-built vehicles currently entering the US would clear that bar. The agreement doesn't expire outright; it moves into an annual review that runs until 2036 unless someone gives six months' notice of withdrawal. Trump, on Canada and Mexico in June: "We don't need anything that Canada has. We don't need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have."

JUNE 29, 2026 IEEPA Refund Portal Hits Phase 2 — Money Still Isn't Actually Moving Yet
CBP's CAPE portal now accepts reconciliation-flagged entries. Of the ~$166B in IEEPA duties roughly 330,000 importers have paid across 53 million entries, about $90B in claims have cleared Phase 1 and roughly $23B has been approved and sent to Treasury for refund. But the government is separately appealing the CIT's refund order itself — so most of that money remains legally contested, not confirmed back in anyone's pocket.

JUNE 17, 2026 Hormuz Ceasefire Signed — Oil Gives Back Almost All Of Its War Premium
Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a memorandum ending the conflict that had shut the Strait of Hormuz since February. Brent crashed from a wartime peak above $188/bbl in late April to roughly $72/bbl by late June — an 11% single-day drop on the announcement alone. Shipping still hasn't returned to pre-war volumes; insurance costs and residual mine risk remain, and intermittent US-Iran strikes through late June kept the ceasefire looking fragile rather than final. Whatever happens with tariffs, this page no longer has to model a live oil shock stacked on top of trade policy — that's the one unambiguous piece of good news in this update.

JUNE 11, 2026 Federal Circuit Stays The Section 122 Ruling — And Signals It Expects To Win
The government asked for, and got, an immediate stay of the CIT's injunction pending appeal. The court's own language suggested it found the administration's case for Section 122 authority persuasive enough that the government is likely to prevail on the merits. Practical effect: the 10% tariff keeps getting collected from everyone, including the three original plaintiffs, while the appeal plays out.

MAY 7, 2026 Court Strikes Down Section 122 — But The Win Doesn't Reach Most Importers
The Court of International Trade ruled the 10% global tariff unlawful, holding that a trade deficit isn't the "balance-of-payments deficit" Section 122 requires. The catch: relief was party-specific, extending only to the State of Washington and two named importer-plaintiffs, not to the roughly 330,000 companies paying the tariff. Two days later, USTR held hearings in its Section 301 "structural excess capacity" investigation — the mechanism explicitly built to replace Section 122 before it expires, since 301 carries no 150-day clock and no 15% cap.

APRIL 23, 2026 Section 122 Still at 10%. 15% Hike Never Formalized. Effective US Tariff Rate: 11% — Highest Since 1940s.
Section 122 global surcharge remains at 10% (expires July 24). The threatened 15% hike was never formally proclaimed. Yale Budget Lab: effective US tariff rate at ~11%, highest average since the 1940s. USMCA bilateral technical talks underway with Mexico; Canada begins May. USTR launched Section 301 investigations (March 11) targeting structural excess capacity in 16 economies including EU, Japan, India — hearings scheduled late April.

APRIL 20, 2026 IEEPA Refund Portal Goes Live — But Limited
CBP launched Phase 1 of the CAPE portal. Importers can now file for IEEPA tariff refunds, but only for unliquidated entries (payments after Jan 30, 2026). Older refunds still face lengthy litigation. $195B+ in total IEEPA revenue collected — most remains in dispute.

APRIL 10, 2026 Oregon v. Trump — Oral Arguments Held
24-state coalition led by Oregon AG Dan Rayfield argued before the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking an injunction to block Section 122 tariffs. No ruling yet. Constitutional authority of president to impose tariffs without Congress remains the core question.

FEB 20, 2026 — SAME DAY Trump Signs 10% Global Tariff Under Section 122
Hours after the SCOTUS ruling, Trump invoked Section 122: "We can do pretty much whatever we want." 10% on nearly all imports, cap of 15%, 150-day window.

FEB 20, 2026 Supreme Court Rules IEEPA Tariffs Illegal — 6-3
Roberts, Gorsuch, Barrett: "IEEPA contains no reference to tariffs or duties." Voided: Universal 10%, all reciprocal rates, de minimis closure. Survived: Section 232 (steel 50%, aluminum 50%, copper 50%, autos 25%). Refunds: $195B+ in IEEPA revenue — companies already filing.

Next-90-Days Predictions Based On 4 Scenarios

Hover over any cell for detailed effects. Scores: green = positive, yellow = mixed, orange-to-red = increasingly negative impact.

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Tariffs Actually Die (Long Shot)

The Federal Circuit reverses course and Section 301 fails to fill the gap before July 24. Section 232 (steel, aluminum, copper, autos, and now pharma) survives regardless.

Section 301 Fills The Gap ← ACTIVE / BASE CASE

The administration's own stated plan: let Section 122 run out its clock while Section 301 — no sunset, no 15% cap — takes over. On June 2 the USTR published a proposed Section 301 schedule covering 60 countries (10% on goods from 15 trading partners, 12.5% on the other 45). The comment period closed July 6 and the hearing was held July 7, so a determination is expected before the July 24 clock runs out.

Trade War Escalation

Section 301 lands hard AND the USMCA breakdown drags Canada into open conflict over the 50%-content auto rule AND the China rare-earth truce cracks. Three fronts, not one.

Deals & De-Escalation

Section 301 lands narrow and targeted. Mexico's bilateral talks produce a deal Canada eventually joins. China truce holds. Effective rate settles near Yale's 8.2% low end.

Beyond Tariffs: The Compounding Pressures (Updated July 3, 2026)

Tariffs are not operating in isolation. Here's what's actually still compounding the damage — and what's stopped.

Hormuz: De-Escalating, Not Resolved. The near-total closure of the Strait that dominated this section in spring is largely over. Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a ceasefire memorandum on June 17; Brent crashed from a wartime peak above $188/bbl to roughly $72/bbl within days. That's genuinely good news and it takes one major compounding variable off this page. It is not fully resolved: shipping volume through the Strait still hasn't returned to pre-war levels, insurance costs and residual mine risk remain elevated, and intermittent US-Iran strikes were still occurring through late June. Treat this as de-escalated, not closed. Full Hormuz analysis

USMCA: The New Compounding Front. The US declined to renew the pact on July 1. Mexico's bilateral talks with the US continue past the deadline; Canada's haven't started. The flashpoint is a new US demand that 50% of a vehicle's content be domestic to qualify for USMCA treatment — a bar only about 1 in 5 Mexican- or Canadian-built vehicles currently clear. This directly stacks on top of whatever Section 122/301 does to the same supply chains, and it's the one new macro risk this update actually adds to the board.

Fertilizer & Agricultural Input Costs: Easing, Slowly. The worst of the Hormuz-driven spike (urea +81% YTD at its peak, anhydrous ammonia past $900/MT, sulfur +158% YoY) has eased alongside the broader oil-price retreat. USDA's caution from earlier in the year still holds, though: elevated input costs are expected to persist into 2027 regardless, because shipping backlogs and infrastructure damage don't unwind as fast as a ceasefire gets signed.

Sanctions & Humanitarian Oil Access. The US retains control of Venezuela's oil apparatus following the January exfiltration of Nicolás Maduro, and exports to sanctioned destinations remain frozen. Cuba's Venezuelan-oil dependency and the resulting blackouts were a live story earlier in the year; nothing in this refresh cycle's research turned up evidence that policy has shifted. Treat this paragraph as unconfirmed-current rather than freshly verified.

See also: Hormuz Industry Impact Heatmap — 15 industries scored across 4 Hormuz closure scenarios

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What does the Section 122 fight actually mean? (full analysis, updated July 11)

Where This Actually Stands

The court already ruled. It didn't matter yet, and it might not matter at all.

What happened: The Court of International Trade ruled on May 7 that Section 122's 10% global tariff is unlawful — a trade deficit, the court held, isn't the "balance-of-payments deficit" the statute requires. The Federal Circuit stayed that ruling on June 11, and its own language signaled it expects the government to win the appeal. So as of today, the tariff the courts already said was illegal is still being collected from everyone except the three original plaintiffs.

Why it may not matter regardless: Section 122 expires by its own statutory terms on July 24, win or lose in court. USTR has spent since March 11 building the replacement: Section 301 investigations into "structural excess capacity" across 16 economies (China, the EU, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, Mexico, and others), covering steel, autos, batteries, solar, ships, semiconductors and more. Section 301 has no 150-day sunset and no 15% cap. The administration doesn't need to win the Section 122 appeal if Section 301 is ready in time — and by every account, it's being built specifically to be ready in time.

The big unknowns:

Refunds: ~$166B in IEEPA duties collected across 53M entries. CAPE portal Phase 2 live since June 29, ~$23B approved and sent to Treasury so far — but the government is separately appealing the refund order itself, so most of that money isn't confirmed back yet.
USMCA: Non-renewed as of July 1. Mexico talks are live; Canada talks haven't started. The 50%-domestic-content auto rule is the fight to watch.
Section 232 pharma: 100% tariff on patented drugs and APIs, phasing in July 31 for 17 named companies and September 29 for everyone else. This one's locked in regardless of anything else on this page.
Effective tariff rate: Trackers disagree on the exact number (Yale Budget Lab and Penn Wharton use different methodologies), but the range converges on high-single-digits to roughly 11% now, settling toward Yale's 8.2% (Section 122 truly expires) to 10.5% (it's effectively replaced) band by year-end.

Bottom line: Nobody serious is betting that tariffs go away in the next 90 days. The question was never "will there be a 10% tariff" — it's "which statute authorizes it, and does that statute have an expiration date." Section 301 doesn't.

Updated July 11, 2026 — CIT struck down Section 122 (May 7), Federal Circuit stayed that ruling and signaled it favors the government (June 11), US declined to renew USMCA (July 1). USTR published a proposed Section 301 schedule on 60 countries (10% / 12.5%) June 2; comment period closed July 6, hearing held July 7 — a determination is expected before Section 122 expires July 24. Section 232 pharma tariffs (100% on patented drugs) begin phasing in July 31. Built on legal-industry analysis (Holland & Knight, Skadden, Gibson Dunn, Troutman Pepper), Yale Budget Lab, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Federal Reserve research notes, CBP data, and financial press coverage of the USMCA and China-truce negotiations.

Sources & Methodology

Holland & Knight, Skadden Arps, Gibson Dunn, Troutman Pepper Locke, Oregon DOJ litigation tracker, Federal Register + USTR press releases, Yale Budget Lab Tariff Rate Tracker, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas/St. Louis PCE notes, CBP CAPE portal disclosures, Crowell & Moring / White & Case (Section 232 pharma), CNBC / Washington Times / Boston Globe / CBC (USMCA), CSIS / CFR / FreightWaves (China truce), Al Jazeera / CNBC (Hormuz). Each industry scored across 4 scenarios from -3 (strong positive) to +5 (severe negative).