US Tariff Impact Heatmap Across 25 Stock Market Industries

Scored across 4 post-ruling scenarios. Hover over any cell for the detailed analysis behind each score.

Timeline

APRIL 23, 2026 Section 122 Still at 10%. 15% Hike Never Formalized. Effective US Tariff Rate: 11% — Highest Since 1940s.
Section 122 global surcharge remains at 10% (expires July 24). The threatened 15% hike was never formally proclaimed. Yale Budget Lab: effective US tariff rate at ~11%, highest average since the 1940s. USMCA bilateral technical talks underway with Mexico; Canada begins May. USTR launched Section 301 investigations (March 11) targeting structural excess capacity in 16 economies including EU, Japan, India — hearings scheduled late April.

APRIL 20, 2026 IEEPA Refund Portal Goes Live — But Limited
CBP launched Phase 1 of the CAPE portal. Importers can now file for IEEPA tariff refunds, but only for unliquidated entries (payments after Jan 30, 2026). Older refunds still face lengthy litigation. $195B+ in total IEEPA revenue collected — most remains in dispute.

APRIL 10, 2026 Oregon v. Trump — Oral Arguments Held
24-state coalition led by Oregon AG Dan Rayfield argued before the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking an injunction to block Section 122 tariffs. No ruling yet. Constitutional authority of president to impose tariffs without Congress remains the core question.

FEB 20, 2026 — SAME DAY Trump Signs 10% Global Tariff Under Section 122
Hours after the SCOTUS ruling, Trump invoked Section 122: "We can do pretty much whatever we want." 10% on nearly all imports, cap of 15%, 150-day window.

FEB 20, 2026 Supreme Court Rules IEEPA Tariffs Illegal — 6-3
Roberts, Gorsuch, Barrett: "IEEPA contains no reference to tariffs or duties." Voided: Universal 10%, all reciprocal rates, de minimis closure. Survived: Section 232 (steel 50%, aluminum 50%, copper 50%, autos 25%). Refunds: $195B+ in IEEPA revenue — companies already filing.

Next-90-Days Predictions Based On 4 Scenarios

Hover over any cell for detailed effects. Scores: green = positive, yellow = mixed, orange-to-red = increasingly negative impact.

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Ruling Holds (Next 90d)

IEEPA tariffs voided and stay voided. Section 232 continues. Admin doesn't reimpose. Markets reprice.

Trump Reimposes (Different Authority)

Admin uses Section 301, Section 201, or emergency legislation. Speed and scope are the question.

Escalation (Defiance + Loopholes) ← ACTIVE

Section 122 at 10% since Feb 24. 15% hike announced. 24-state lawsuit challenges it. Constitutional crisis territory.

Negotiated Retreat (Face-Saving Exit)

Admin uses ruling as cover to de-escalate. Keeps Section 232, drops reciprocals, claims victory.

Beyond Tariffs: The Compounding Pressures (April 2026)

Tariffs are not operating in isolation. Four non-tariff forces are compounding the damage.

Hormuz Closure & Oil Shock: Since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, roughly 15-20 million barrels per day of oil have been trapped. Brent crude is above $106/bbl, with physical "Dated Brent" demanding a ~$126/bbl scarcity premium. The US is executing a historic 172-million-barrel SPR drawdown at 4.4M bpd max rate — once complete, the SPR falls to 243 million barrels, a 40-year low. US diesel is at $5.40/gal (+50% YoY). Despite record domestic production, "energy independence" has been tested: crude oil is globally priced, and domestic supply hasn't shielded the economy from the global price surge. Full Hormuz analysis

Fertilizer & Agricultural Input Crisis: The Persian Gulf is the world's largest low-cost urea and ammonia export hub. The shipping blockade has driven urea up 81% YTD to ~$702/MT, DAP above $722/MT, anhydrous ammonia past $900/MT, and sulfur up 158% YoY. This hit during spring 2026 planting season — the worst possible timing. USDA warns elevated fertilizer prices will persist into 2027 even if Hormuz clears due to infrastructure damage and shipping backlogs.

Aviation & Jet Fuel Crisis: Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since February to $3.87-4.00/gal. Jet fuel is 30% of airline expenses. American Airlines projects the spike will cost $4 billion this year, wiping out 2026 profits entirely. Lufthansa canceled 20,000 short-haul flights. Air Transat cut 1,000 flights. Air Canada suspended routes. The IEA warns Europe could face physical jet fuel shortages within six weeks.

Sanctions & Humanitarian Oil Access: Following the US exfiltration of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, the Trump administration controls Venezuela's oil apparatus and has frozen exports to US adversaries. Cuba, heavily dependent on Venezuelan oil shipments, is suffering severe nationwide electrical blackouts. In January, Mexico's state-owned Pemex was forced to cancel a sovereign relief shipment of oil to Cuba under threat of US retaliatory tariffs. Despite the global supply crunch, US sanctions policies remain rigid.

See also: Hormuz Industry Impact Heatmap — 15 industries scored across 4 Hormuz closure scenarios

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What does the SCOTUS ruling actually mean? (full analysis)

What Does the Ruling Actually Mean?

It's significant, but it's not the end of tariffs.

What it definitively does: Invalidates every tariff imposed under IEEPA — the universal 10%, reciprocal rates on 60+ countries, de minimis closure, and country-specific penalties on Brazil, India, and others.

What it does NOT do: Touch Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum, copper, autos) — those have a different legal basis. It also doesn't prevent Congress from passing new tariff legislation.

The big unknowns:

Refunds: $195B in tariff revenue collected in FY2025. Major companies already filing.
Reimposition: Section 301 requires investigation, Section 201 requires ITC findings. None as fast as IEEPA.
Existing trade deals: UK, China, Japan, EU deals negotiated under IEEPA framework. If tariffs void, do deals hold?
Market impact: Nearly 90% of tariff burden fell on US companies and consumers (NY Fed). Average levy went from <3% to 13% in 2025.

Bottom line: The legal architecture collapsed, and within hours Trump found a new one. Section 122 gives him 10% for 150 days without Congressional approval — but it caps at 15%, far below the 25-145% IEEPA rates. The next 90 days will determine whether this is the new baseline or whether it escalates further.

Sources & Methodology

CBS News, Wikipedia tariff chronology, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 50 YouTube expert analyses (AI-summarized), FreightWaves, Goldman Sachs, OECD, NBER/Kiel Institute, US Treasury, JURIST, Tax Foundation, Senate Finance Committee. Each industry scored across 4 scenarios from -3 (strong positive) to +5 (devastating negative).